地震灾区应急洪水预报方案建立研究
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国家自然科学基金(50479017);淮河流域气象开放研究基金;教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划基金(IRT0717)


Complication of Emergency flood forecasting scheme in Disaster Areas by Earthquakes
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    摘要:

    提出了一种建立地震灾区应急洪水预报方案的方法,即在划分基本类的基础上,建立每类的应急雨量站和面雨量的回归方程,并提出了时段面雨量计算方法,结合现有的经验预报方案,实现地震灾区洪水预报,用以满足灾后应急洪水预报的需要。该方法不依赖于流域内全部测站的降雨信息,可有效解决灾后流域内雨量站缺测的应急洪水预报问题。实例应用表明,该方法预报结果令人满意。

    Abstract:

    To avoid the flood secondary disasters caused by the earthquake,the department which has the task of flood forecasting set up emergency flood forecasting scheme to provide scientific basis for earthquake relief in earthquake-prone areas.A method of forecasting emergency flood in earthquake areas is provided in the paper.The logistic equations of each kind of emergency rainfall station and area rainfall are set up by dividing the basic classes in the method.The computation method of acquiring time-area rainfall is also deduced.Combined with the available experience forecasting project,the method could implement flood forecasting to satisfy the earthquake relief in earthquake areas.The method does not depend on the rainfall information in all rainfall stations and could solve the problems of lacking of observation data in disaster areas effectively.The application example shows the forecasting result of the method is satisfactory.

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温立成.地震灾区应急洪水预报方案建立研究[J].河北工程大学自然版,2009,26(4):40-44

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  • 收稿日期:2009-09-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-01-12
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