基于灰色AHP的水利工程项目投资风险分析
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Investment risk assessment of water conservancy project based on Grey-AHP
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    摘要:

    以水利水电工程项目为研究对象,从自然风险、经济风险、政治风险、技术风险、组织与管理风险、招投标风险六个方面构建了水利水电工程项目投资风险评价体系。针对水利工程风险评价常用方法的缺陷和不足,建立基于灰色AHP的综合评价模型,利用AHP确定评价指标权重,运用灰色系统理论计算综合评价值,得出评价结论。最后,选取水利工程实例进行计算分析,验证了模型的适用性。结果表明:该模型能够为水利水电工程项目投资风险决策和风险管理提供有力的理论依据。

    Abstract:

    The project’s investment risk evaluation system was built from six aspects of the naturalrisk,economic risk,political and social risk,technology risk,management risk and the bidding risk.In view of the defects and the insufficiency of common methods of risk assessment of water conservancyprojects,Grey AHP comprehensive risk evaluation model was used to evaluate.Firstly,determinationof the weights of evaluation indexes based on AHP,and then integrated assessment value was calculatedby grey theory,lastly to get the verdict.Moreover,water conservancy engineering project wasselected to verify the applicability of the model.The results show that the method can provide strongtheoretical basis for decision-making and risk management of investment risk in Water Conservancyand Hydropower Engineering project.

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叶智峰.基于灰色AHP的水利工程项目投资风险分析[J].河北工程大学自然版,2014,31(4):90-93

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  • 收稿日期:2014-08-28
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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-01-20
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