基于灰色系统理论的高校用水量预测
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TU991.31

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国家自然科学基金联合基金重点支持项目(U20A20316);河北省自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(E2020402074)


Prediction of University Water Consumption Based on Grey System Theory
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    摘要:

    为了准确预测高校用水量,基于灰色系统理论建立了高校用水量预测模型,确定了用水人数、占地面积、绿化率、管网有效供水率和节水器具普及率五个影响用水量的主要因素,并计算出各因素的灰色关联系数及关联度,对用水量预测模型进行求解。预测结果显示,排除学校放假影响因素,其他季度用水量预测值与用水量实测值相对误差小于5%,模型后验差比为0.089,预测结果与实际基本保持一致,模型预测精度良好。

    Abstract:

    Based on the grey system theory, the prediction model of water consumption in colleges and universities was established with five main factors affecting water consumption including number of people using water, land area, greening rate, water supply efficiency of pipe network and penetration rate of water-saving appliances, the grey correlation coefficient and correlation degree of each factor were calculated, and then the water consumption prediction model was used and analyzed. The prediction results show that excluding the influencing factors of vacation, the relative error between the predicted water consumption and the measured water consumption in other quarters is less than 5 %, and the posterior error ratio of the model is 0.089. The prediction results are basically consistent with the actual situation, and the prediction accuracy of the model meets the engineering standard.

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史红伟,陈家亮,张继群,李志会,张峥.基于灰色系统理论的高校用水量预测[J].河北工程大学自然版,2022,39(1):78-83

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  • 收稿日期:2021-12-07
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-04-09
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