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史红伟,陈家亮,张继群,李志会,张峥.基于灰色系统理论的高校用水量预测[J].河北工程大学自然版,2022,39(1):78-83
基于灰色系统理论的高校用水量预测
Prediction of University Water Consumption Based on Grey System Theory
投稿时间:2021-12-07  
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-9469.2022.01.012
中文关键词:  灰色模型  GM(1,1)  节水影响因素  灰色关联度  用水量预测
英文关键词:Grey model  GM (1,1)  influencing factors of water saving  grey relational degree  forecast of water consumption
基金项目:国家自然科学基金联合基金重点支持项目(U20A20316);河北省自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(E2020402074)
作者单位
史红伟 中国水务投资有限公司, 北京 100053 
陈家亮 河北工程大学 水利水电学院, 河北 邯郸 056038
河北省智慧水利重点实验室, 河北 邯郸 056038 
张继群 水利部节约用水促进中心, 北京 100000 
李志会 河北工程大学 水利水电学院, 河北 邯郸 056038
河北省智慧水利重点实验室, 河北 邯郸 056038 
张峥 河北工程大学 水利水电学院, 河北 邯郸 056038
河北省智慧水利重点实验室, 河北 邯郸 056038 
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中文摘要:
      为了准确预测高校用水量,基于灰色系统理论建立了高校用水量预测模型,确定了用水人数、占地面积、绿化率、管网有效供水率和节水器具普及率五个影响用水量的主要因素,并计算出各因素的灰色关联系数及关联度,对用水量预测模型进行求解。预测结果显示,排除学校放假影响因素,其他季度用水量预测值与用水量实测值相对误差小于5%,模型后验差比为0.089,预测结果与实际基本保持一致,模型预测精度良好。
英文摘要:
      Based on the grey system theory, the prediction model of water consumption in colleges and universities was established with five main factors affecting water consumption including number of people using water, land area, greening rate, water supply efficiency of pipe network and penetration rate of water-saving appliances, the grey correlation coefficient and correlation degree of each factor were calculated, and then the water consumption prediction model was used and analyzed. The prediction results show that excluding the influencing factors of vacation, the relative error between the predicted water consumption and the measured water consumption in other quarters is less than 5 %, and the posterior error ratio of the model is 0.089. The prediction results are basically consistent with the actual situation, and the prediction accuracy of the model meets the engineering standard.
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