“最严格水资源管理制度”对京津冀地区农业干旱的影响
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F326.1

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中文基金项目河北省社会科学发展研究课题(编号:2019031203003)


Impact of “The strictest water resources management system” on agricultural drought in Beijing-tianjin-hebei region
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    摘要:

    京津冀地区多年来一直是水资源匮乏的区域,近年来随着"最严格水资源管理制度"的落实,当地的农业生产和社会经济的发展受到了严重制约。因此,系统研究京津冀地区的干旱情况,精确预测和评估旱情发生的规律和危害,可为区域水资源调控和相关部门决策提供科学依据,并对未来农业用水提供合理的解决方案。基于2000-2016年5-10月份MODIS NDVI和LST月数据,利用TVDI模型对京津冀地区进行干旱监测,探讨其干旱的时空分布,在此基础上,结合MCD12Q1 Land cover type2土地覆盖数据的马里兰分类方案,将土地覆盖分类修改合并为两大类:农用地和非农用地,作为提取农用地TVDI的底图,并进一步分析农用地受灾的情况。结果表明:2013年之后,"最严格水资源管理制度"的提出对京津冀农用地影响非常大,在很大程度上导致农用地干旱面积增加。

    Abstract:

    The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been a water-poor area for many years. In recent years, with the implementation of the "strictest water resources management system",the local agricultural production and social and economic development have been severely restricted. Therefore, systematically studying the drought situation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, accurately predicting and assessing the laws and hazards of drought occurrence, can provide scientific basis for regional water resources regulation and decision-making by relevant departments, and provide reasonable solutions for future agricultural water use. Based on the monthly MODIS NDVI and LST data from May to October in 2000-2016, this paper uses the TVDI model to monitor droughts in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and discusses the temporal and spatial distribution of droughts. On this basis, combined with MCD12Q1 Land cover type 2 land cover data In the Maryland classification scheme, the land cover classification was revised and merged into two categories:agricultural land and non-agricultural land, as a base map for extracting TVDI of agricultural land, and further analysis of the disaster situation of agricultural land. The results show that after 2013, the proposal of the "strictest water resources management system" has a great impact on agricultural land in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, which will lead to an increase in the arid area of agricultural land to a certain extent.

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刘海新,高叶鹏,王炜.“最严格水资源管理制度”对京津冀地区农业干旱的影响[J].河北工程大学学报社会科学版,2020,37(3):9-13

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  • 收稿日期:2020-08-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-11-03
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