宏观审慎政策有效性分析——基于银行系统性风险贡献度视角
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F832.3;F822.0

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安徽省高校学科(专业)拔尖人才学术资助项目(编号:gxbjZD14);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目(编号:ACYC2020176);安徽高校自然科学重大研究项目(编号:KJ2021ZD0054)


Macroprudential Policy Effectiveness——Based on the Perspective of Bank Systemic Risk Contribution
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    摘要:

    宏观审慎政策作为稳定金融系统的重要手段,在我国实践年份较长,但具体政策效果还有待探究。该文使用我国16家上市银行2012—2019年数据,构建反映银行系统性风险贡献度的指标,然后使用系统GMM分析宏观审慎政策在抑制银行系统性风险贡献度方面的效果。研究结果显示宏观审慎政策的整体实施能有效抑制银行系统性风险贡献度,实施效果与政策力度正相关。此外,宏观经济环境和银行自身变量也会对银行系统性风险贡献度产生差异化影响,进一步研究还显示,实施逆周期宏观审慎政策有利于降低经济周期变化带来的系统性风险波动,平滑经济周期。因此宏观审慎政策应以逆周期实施为主,并对国有五大行进行特别关注,必要时可对商业银行自身指标提出要求。

    Abstract:

    As an important means of stabilizing the financial system, macro-prudential policies have been practiced in China for a long time, but the effects of specific policies have yet to be explored. This paper uses the data of 16 listed banks in China from 2012 to 2019 to construct an indicator reflecting the contribution of the bank's systemic risk, and then uses the system GMM to analyze the effect of macro-prudential policies in suppressing the contribution of the bank's systemic risk. The research results shows that the overall implementation of macro-prudential policies can effectively suppress the contribution of banks to systemic risks, and the effect of implementation is positively correlated with the intensity of policies. In addition, the macroeconomic environment and the bank's own variables will also have a differentiated impact on the contribution of banks to systemic risks. Further research also shows that the implementation of countercyclical macroprudential policies is conducive to reducing systemic risk fluctuations caused by economic cycle changes and smoothing the economy cycle. Therefore, macro-prudential policies should be mainly implemented counter-cyclically, and special attention should be paid to the five major state-owned banks, and when necessary, requirements can be put forward for the indicators of commercial banks themselves.

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万光彩,李少辉.宏观审慎政策有效性分析——基于银行系统性风险贡献度视角[J].河北工程大学学报社会科学版,2022,39(1):32-40

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  • 收稿日期:2021-11-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-04-25
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