国际能源背景下中国能源市场风险溢出效应研究
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F832.5

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河北省社会科学基金项目(编号:HB21GL009)


A Study of the Risk Spillover Effects of China’s Energy Markets in the International Energy Context
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    摘要:

    在国际能源市场迅速发展的背景下,能源作为重要商品,其金融属性增强带来的价格波动往往引起国内金融市场的起伏。选取国际原油、煤炭、天然气市场与中国能源行业数据,建立偏斜t分布的GAS模型,度量国内外能源市场的VaR和ES,并进行回测检验证明GAS模型的稳健性;采用分位数CoVaR对比分析国际能源市场对国内市场的风险溢出效应。研究结果表明:国际原油市场对中国能源市场有双向的风险溢出,国际煤炭市场与天然气市场对中国能源市场有反向的风险溢出,国际煤炭市场对中国能源市场的风险溢出贡献度远大于其他市场。

    Abstract:

    Energy is an important commodity, and its price fluctuation, which is triggered by the enhancement of its financial attribute, often causes the fluctuation of domestic market under the background of the rapid development of international financial market. Based on the data of international crude oil, coal and natural gas markets and China’s energy industry, the GAS model with skewed t distribution is established to measure the VaR and ES of domestic and foreign energy markets, and the back test is carried out to prove the robustness of the GAS model; Quantile CoVaR is used to compare and analyze the risk spillover effect of international energy market on domestic market. The results show that the international crude oil market contributes to a two-way risk spillover to China’s energy market; there is a reverse risk spillover from the international coal market and natural gas market to China’s energy market, and the contribution of the international coal market to the risk spillover to China’s energy market is much greater than that of other markets.

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韩光辉,张跃强,刘攀攀.国际能源背景下中国能源市场风险溢出效应研究[J].河北工程大学学报社会科学版,2022,39(2):25-33

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  • 收稿日期:2022-03-02
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-26
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