Based on the provincial panel data from 2013 to 2022, this paper comprehensively measures the technological innovation capacity of China’s new generation information technology industry from the three dimension, namely, the integration of innovation organizations, the allocation of innovation resources, and the spillover of innovation benefits; also, this paper further reveals its polarisation trend and spatio-temporal evolution law. The study finds that the spatial heterogeneity of technological innovation capacity of China’s new generation information technology industry is remarkable. Without considering the role of spatial factors, the possibility of achieving a leapfrog transfer of technological innovation capacity in China’s new-generation information technology industry as a whole and in the four major sectors is low, and the phenomena of "low-level trap" and "high-level monopoly" coexist. Considering the spatial factor, the type of spatial lag has a significant impact on the stability of the transfer of industrial technological innovation capacity due to the spatial interaction and spatial spillover effect among provinces.